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Former President Donald Trump recently expressed support for Amendment 3, a ballot initiative scheduled for Nov. 5, 2024, that would legalize recreational cannabis in Florida. This unexpected endorsement has added a new twist to the ongoing legalization efforts in the state.
Proponents of the measure are hoping that Trump’s backing will help sway the 15% of undecided voters to vote in favor of the legislation. With just over a month before the election, the fate of Amendment 3 is still uncertain as polls show the decision could go either way. To pass, the measure needs at least 60% of the vote; thus, every vote is crucial.
A recent Fox News poll showed 66% of voters in the state support the initiative, while another poll by Florida Atlantic University showed only 56% planned to vote yes. While polls show mixed results, the financial backing on both sides of the debate reveals a large gap.
Smart and Safe Florida, a political action committee (PAC) led by Trulieve and supporting Amendment 3, has managed to raise more than $100 million as of Sept. 20. Meanwhile, the opposition, including two anti-marijuana PACs — Keep Florida Clean and Florida Freedom Fund, aligned with Governor Ron DeSantis — has raised about $20 million.
Big donors on both sides are actively contributing to their respective causes. Trulieve has donated at least $87 million in support of the measure. On the opposing side, Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel Hedge Fund, has donated $12 million to Keep Florida Clean, with another $7 million expected.
The situation becomes even more complicated with the state’s hemp industry executives opposing the measure and pledging $5 million to fight it. This follows Governor Ron DeSantis’ veto of SB 1698 on June 7, 2024, which aimed to ban intoxicating cannabinoids derived from hemp, a move that could have severely impacted the hemp sector.
Florida’s medical marijuana market was largely dominated by multistate operators (MSOs). Verano Holdings, Curaleaf Holdings Inc. (CSE: CURA) (OTCQX: CURLF), Surterra and Ayr Wellness control 61.4% of the 603 medical cannabis dispensaries in the state, while Trulieve owns 21% of them.
Approximately 4% of Florida’s population is registered as a patient using medical marijuana, making the state’s medical cannabis market substantial.
If Amendment 3 passes, many of the current medical cannabis operators will likely transition to the recreational market. The law would take effect six months later, on May 5, 2025. However, given DeSantis’ opposition and the GOP-controlled legislature, there’s potential for political maneuvering that could delay the process well beyond that date.
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