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With recent shifts in political power, many are questioning if a Republican-led government might better support cannabis reform than one led by Democrats. As former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans take control of the Senate, the $32 billion U.S. cannabis industry stands at a crucial point, uncertain about the future of legalization.
The recent elections delivered three defeats for state-level adult-use cannabis legalization. This shift may signal a transition from state-driven legalization efforts toward a more federal approach in Washington, D.C.
Advocates and lobbyists now face the challenge of uniting and presenting a cohesive message to persuade conservative legislators to support reform on a federal level. David Culver, director of government affairs at the U.S. Marijuana Council, noted that while the results were disappointing, there are still potential opportunities to make progress next year.
While Trump’s support for states’ cannabis legalization and Biden’s marijuana rescheduling initiative offer a glimmer of hope, obstacles remain, especially with conservative resistance.
In contrast to recreational marijuana, medical marijuana initiatives are still gaining ground in some states. For example, Nebraska voters decisively supported medical cannabis, although a pending court case may impact the final outcome.
However, the path for recreational use has not been as favorable. In Florida, voters rejected a highly-funded adult-use measure, supported by the cannabis industry, with the opposition led by GOP Governor Ron DeSantis. Similarly, voters in both North and South Dakota turned down industry-backed proposals for adult-use legalization.
These recent defeats raise critical questions about whether marijuana reform campaigns can return to these states and if the industry will be able to fund future campaigns following such costly setbacks.
The current political landscape suggests that federal reform will become the next major focus for cannabis advocates. Republicans are expected to take control of the White House and perhaps both houses of Congress by January. Marijuana policy will probably be neglected until important decisions are made, such as choosing the next U.S. Attorney General or the DEA chief.
Some cultural concerns have also complicated progress for marijuana reform. According to the co-executive director of the Coalition for Cannabis Policy, Education, and Reform co-executive, Shanita Penny, conservative lawmakers have raised issues about the widespread public use of marijuana in D.C., with some expressing frustration about cannabis smells outdoors. Florida voters also echoed similar concerns, which may have influenced their opposition to the recent ballot measure.
The division within the broader cannabis industry itself is another factor slowing down reform efforts. Disagreements between regulated cannabis businesses and hemp operators continue to muddy the industry’s message. A debate has emerged over the “Farm Bill loophole,” which some cannabis advocates wish to close to restrict certain hemp-derived THC products.
Firms like Cresco Labs Inc. (CSE: CL) (OTCQX: CRLBF) will be watching to see how the changes on Capitol Hill impact the rate at which marijuana policy changes are introduced, discussed and possibly implemented.
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